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101.
Conclusions The necessary and sufficient condition suggested by Hillman [1980] for the index of RCA, when used in cross-country comparisons,
to provide a one-to-one relationship between pre-trade comparative advantage and revealed comparative advantage is fulfilled
for the great majority of the “commodities” traded in 1985 by 118 developing economies. Given the low level of data aggregation
(the lowest for which statistical information is currently available), the large sample of countries and the high percentage
of developing economies’ total exports captured in this research, we can conclude that Balassa’s export-performance index,
for cross-country comparisons, is a good indicator of comparative advantage as reflected by pre-trade prices. In other words,
Hillman’s condition is a useful indicator of the presence of monotonicity in indices of RCA: we have observed that at a 5-digit
level of commodity aggregation, increases in Balassa’s export performance index of RCA are likely to correspond to increases
in export levels. Aggregation of commodities at a 3-digit and at a 1-digit level suggests that Hillman’s condition is unlikely
to be violated if the cause for values of the Hillman’s Index less than one is due to export specialization; on the contrary,
the number of cases of a Hillman Index smaller than one due to a large share of world markets is expected to be negatively
related to the level of aggregation. Our results suggest that Hillman’s index should be calculated in any empirical investigation
trying to assess the long-term implications of trade liberalization negotiations using an export-performance index of RCA.
There is evidence that, if used at a disaggregated level, the HI is a tool that may help flag cases in which the RCA index
can be a misleading indicator of countries’ comparative advantage, even in cross-country comparisons. It may also help reduce
disagreements regarding the most appropriate coefficient of RCA.
Further research should be directed toward enlarging the sample of countries to include the entire world and to incorporate
at least three years of trade so as to be able to eliminate the possible influence of cycles. 相似文献
102.
In this paper we show that the role of diversity, local interactions and global endogenous change at the level of social standards might be crucial in understanding the evolution of consumption patterns in modern economies. We propose an evolutionary model from which consumption dynamics can be analyzed as global properties emerging from the endogenous transformation of a society inhabited by boundedly rational interactive consumers. This work aspires to take a modest step forward in the direction of an evolutionary theory of demand change. 相似文献
103.
Abstract. This paper surveys recent developments in the theory of option pricing. The emphasis is on the interplay between option prices and investors' impatience and their aversion to risk. The traditional view, steeped in the risk‐neutral approach to derivative pricing, has been that these preferences play no role in the determination of option prices. However, the usual lognormality assumption required to obtain preference‐free option pricing formulas is at odds with the empirical properties of financial assets. The lognormality assumption is easily reconcilable with those properties by the introduction of a latent state variable whose values can be interpreted as the states of the economy. The presence of a covariance risk with the state variable makes option prices depend explicitly on preferences. Generalized option pricing formulas, in which preferences matter, can explain several well‐known empirical biases associated with preference‐free models such as that of Black and Scholes (1973) and the stochastic volatility extensions of Hull and White (1987) and Heston (1993) . 相似文献
104.
David S. Bullock Philip Garcia Kie-Yup Shin 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2005,49(1):1-21
Procedures to measure the producer welfare effects of changes in an output price distribution under uncertainty are reviewed. Theory and numerical integration methods are combined to show how for any form of Marshallian risk-responsive supply, compensating variation of a change in higher moments of an output price distribution can be derived numerically. The numerical procedure enables measurement of producer welfare effects in the many circumstances in which risk and uncertainty are important elements. The practical ease and potential usefulness of the procedure is illustrated by measuring the producer welfare effects of USA rice policy. 相似文献
105.
We present a portfolio decision model for banks that permits us to estimate the costs associated with the need to collateralise loans from the central bank. This allows us to calibrate the difference between a restrictive collateral eligibility framework for open market operations, such as that applied by the FED, with a more flexible approach such as that of Eurosystem. We also document that there could potentially appear relevant cost differences between the various collateral mobilisation procedures (pooling and earmarking) that currently coexist in the eurozone. 相似文献
106.
The real options literature has provided new insights on how to manage irreversible capital investments whose payoffs are
uncertain. Two of the most important predictions from such theory are: (i) greater risk delays a firm’s investment timing,
and (ii) greater risk increases the option value of waiting. This paper challenges such conclusions in a setting in which
the relevant random variable is the arrival time of an unfavorable event. In particular, we model situations in which a firm
must choose the time at which to invest in a project whose profit grows at a known rate until a random date is reached and
decays thereafter, which may be representative of stochastic product or industry life cycles. This is a novel framework in
which a firm can update its beliefs about the profitability of an investment opportunity by simply waiting to invest. Thus,
a wait-and-see approach allows the firm to capitalize on favorable market evolutions and avoid adverse ones to some extent.
Our framework is simple and does not require using stochastic calculus, which allows for an economic interpretation of optimal
investment policies for the cases of one-time and sequential investments. 相似文献
107.
The analysis of poverty measures has been receiving increased attention in recent years. This paper contributes to the literature by developing percentile ratio estimators based on the pseudo empirical likelihood method. In practice, variances of poverty measures could be not expressible by simple formulae and consequently other techniques should be used in the variance estimation stage. Assuming percentile ratios, resampling techniques are investigated in this paper. A numerical example based on data from the Spanish Household Panel Survey is taken up to illustrate how suggested procedures can perform better than existing ones. The effect of a model-misspecification on the proposed estimators is also evaluated by using simulated populations. 相似文献
108.
Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado Ngo Van Long 《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》2011,35(9):1489-1501
Despite its theoretical dominance, the empirical case in favor of the permanent income hypothesis is weak. Contrary to one of its basic implications, a growing body of evidence suggests that rich households save a higher proportion of their permanent income than poor households. We propose an overlapping-generations economy where households care about relative consumption. As a result, an individual's consumption is driven by the comparison of his lifetime income and the lifetime income of his reference group; a permanent income version of Duesenberry's (1949) relative income hypothesis. Across households the savings rate increases with income while aggregate savings are independent of the income distribution. 相似文献
109.
Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This study examines the effect of firm-level investor sentiment derived from news articles and Twitter media content on analyst herding. The results... 相似文献
110.
Recent research has cast serious doubts on the explanatory power of staggered wage/price setting to account for both output and inflation persistence following money shocks. This paper extends a dynamic general equilibrium model with wage staggering by incorporating relative wage concern on the part of workers. In sharp contrast to previous analyses, in this model both output and inflation dynamics exhibit substantial persistence. Moreover, persistence results hold for a wide range of parameterisations. Our results suggest that relative wage concern may be the missing piece in the money shock persistence puzzle. 相似文献